April 14, 2021

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Superforecasting

Superforecasting
Author : Philip Tetlock,Dan Gardner
Publisher : Random House
Release Date : 2015-09-24
Category : Social Science
Total pages :352
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NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD 'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life. 'The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In other words, to everyone.' Economist 'A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . . Highly recommended.' Independent 'The best thing I have read on predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide to this indispensable activity.' The Times

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
Author : Instaread
Publisher : Instaread
Release Date : 2015-12-14
Category : Business & Economics
Total pages :37
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Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

Summary of Superforecasting

Summary of Superforecasting
Author : Instaread Summaries
Publisher : Idreambooks
Release Date : 2016-04-05
Category : Nature
Total pages :36
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Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting:* Overview of the book* Important People* Key Takeaways* Analysis of Key Takeaways

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
Author : Anonim
Publisher : Unknown
Release Date : 2015
Category :
Total pages :129
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Abstract Reflecting on Tetlock and Gardner's "Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters"

Superforecasting

Superforecasting
Author : Instaread
Publisher : Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
Release Date : 2015-12-14
Category :
Total pages :36
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PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a nonfiction book about the accuracy of forecasting. It recounts the efforts of Philip E. Tetlock, a professor of psychology and marketing at the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania, to create accurate measurements of the accuracy of forecasting, and to study the people and conditions that create the most accurate forecasts... Inside this Instaread of Superforecasting: Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways About the Author With Instaread, you can get the key takeaways and analysis of a book in 15 minutes. We read every chapter, identify the key takeaways and analyze them for your convenience.

Superforecasting Or Snafu

Superforecasting Or Snafu
Author : David L. Raugh
Publisher : Unknown
Release Date : 2019
Category :
Total pages :137
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What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield, hierarchical culture, and institutional tendencies of the US Army may promote and reinforce these habits. I surveyed Colonels in US Army War College programs to measure their individual tendencies, levels of education, and accuracy in forecasting events during a three to twelve-month future. Quantitative analysis of the resulting data shows that these habits are present and negatively affect forecasting ability; additionally, higher levels of education positively affect forecast accuracy, possibly counteracting the effects of negative institutional tendencies and habits. Extending the research using historical and contemporary case studies of senior US Army Generals, including interviews of General David Petraeus and other high-ranking officials, I find that rejection of these institutional habits and tendencies enabled superior forecasting, leading to battlefield success. I conclude by examining how educational levels of commanding generals in the Iraq War affected military success. Exploratory quantitative analysis of data collected from the US Army historical archives shows that higher levels of education positively affected significant activities within the general's assigned areas.

Expert Political Judgment

Expert Political Judgment
Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Princeton University Press
Release Date : 2017-08-29
Category : Political Science
Total pages :368
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Since its original publication, Expert Political Judgment by New York Times bestselling author Philip Tetlock has established itself as a contemporary classic in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat. Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making. Now with a new preface in which Tetlock discusses the latest research in the field, the book explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.

Future Babble

Future Babble
Author : Dan Gardner
Publisher : Plume
Release Date : 2012-02
Category : Psychology
Total pages :320
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"Genuinely arresting . . . required reading for journalists, politicians, academics, and anyone who listens to them." -Steven Pinker, author of How the Mind Works We are awash in predictions. In newspapers, blogs, and books; on radio and television. Every day experts tell us how the economy will perform next year, if housing sales will grow or shrink, and who will win the next election. Predictions are offered about the climate, food, technology, and the world our grandchildren will inhabit. And we can't get enough of it. Drawing on research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner explores our obsession with the future. He shows how famous pundits, "hedgehogs" who stick to one big idea no matter how circumstances change, become expert at explaining away predictions that are wrong while "foxes," who are more equivocal in their judgments, are simply more accurate.

The Science of Fear

The Science of Fear
Author : Daniel Gardner
Publisher : Penguin
Release Date : 2009
Category : Business & Economics
Total pages :351
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An analysis of the scientific causes of irrational fear offers insight into the brain's role in causing people to experience and react to fear, in a report that explains how heightened fear in the post-9/11 world is dangerously intersecting with biologically driven responses.

Factfulness

Factfulness
Author : Hans Rosling,Ola Rosling,Anna Rosling Rönnlund
Publisher : Hachette UK
Release Date : 2018-04-03
Category : Business & Economics
Total pages :352
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'One of the most important books I've ever read - an indispensable guide to thinking clearly about the world' BILL GATES 'A hopeful book about the potential for human progress when we work off facts rather than our inherent biases' BARACK OBAMA The international bestseller, inspiring and revelatory, filled with lively anecdotes and moving stories, Factfulness is an urgent and essential book that will change the way you see the world, and make you realise things are better than you thought. *#1 Sunday Times bestseller * New York Times bestseller * Observer 'best brainy book of the decade' * Irish Times bestseller * audiobook bestseller * Guardian bestseller *

The Fashion Forecasters

The Fashion Forecasters
Author : Regina Lee Blaszczyk,Ben Wubs
Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
Release Date : 2018-03-08
Category : Design
Total pages :296
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The fashion business has been collecting and analyzing information about colors, fabrics, silhouettes, and styles since the 18th century - activities that have long been shrouded in mystery. The Fashion Forecasters is the first book to reveal the hidden history of color and trend forecasting and to explore its relevance to the fashion business of the past two centuries. It sheds light on trend forecasting in the industrial era, the profession's maturation during the modernist moment of the 20th century, and its continued importance in today's digital fast-fashion culture. Based on in-depth archival research and oral history interviews, The Fashion Forecasters examines the entrepreneurs, service companies, and consultants that have worked behind the scenes to connect designers and retailers to emerging fashion trends in Europe, North America, and Asia. Here you will read about the trend studios, color experts, and international trade fairs that formalized the prediction process in the modern era, and hear the voices of leading contemporary practitioners at international forecasting companies such as the Doneger Group in New York and WGSN in London. Probing the inner workings of the global fashion system, The Fashion Forecasters blends history, biography, and ethnography into a highly readable cultural narrative.

Identifying Superforecasters in Online Market Research via Advertisement Testing Surveys

Identifying Superforecasters in Online Market Research via Advertisement Testing Surveys
Author : Ruhaim Izmeth
Publisher : GRIN Verlag
Release Date : 2017-06-26
Category : Business & Economics
Total pages :28
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Research Paper (postgraduate) from the year 2016 in the subject Communications - Public Relations, Advertising, Marketing, Social Media, grade: 3.75, , course: Masters in IT, language: English, abstract: This research is inspired by the result of the works of Professor Tetlock on prediction science in the geopolitical and economics domains. He suggests that some non-experts are better than experts in predicting the future. This research attempts to identify if a group of individuals with high prediction skill exists in the general public by testing on ad testing surveys. Modern businesses spend billions of dollars on branding and advertising of their products. Ad testing is commonly used as a tool to gauge the success and effectiveness of such campaigns. A problem faced by ad testing surveys is that the main campaign has to be kept on hold until the survey data is collected. Usually, larger the sample size the longer the delay. If a smaller group of forecasters are able to predict the opinion of a larger sample, the delay faced in ad testing surveys could be minimized. Data from a prediction survey collected from 659 subjects living in the UK who predicted the best ads from set of 16 ad-pairs, were analyzed in this research. The analysis found that few individuals were able to predict more successfully and with greater confidence than others. Nonetheless, more research in the same domain with greater vigor is needed to fortify the claim.

The Trend Forecaster's Handbook

The Trend Forecaster's Handbook
Author : Martin Raymond
Publisher : Hachette UK
Release Date : 2019-07-29
Category : Social Science
Total pages :416
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Sharp, in-depth and highly visual, this is the fully revised textbook and teaching aid for students, tutors and in-house learning and development teams keen to know more about the world of trends, forecasting, innovation thinking and strategic foresight. Designed and written as a practical ‘how to’ guide for design, marketing, brand and innovation studies students, updated chapters include the latest research and industry case studies on superforecasting, three horizon scanning, scenario planning, foresight framework building and the creation and running of your own trend and innovation sprints. Students also have a chance to mix and merge the worlds of forecasting with future studies as we look at how techniques and processes such as the Delphi Method, cross-impact analysis, futures wheels and backcasting are being used by next generation forecasters to expand the ways they map, assess and define the needs and behaviours of tomorrow’s consumers.

HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Risk (with bonus article "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk" by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart)

HBR's 10 Must Reads on Managing Risk (with bonus article
Author : Harvard Business Review,Robert S. Kaplan,Condoleezza Rice,Philip E. Tetlock,Paul J. H. Schoemaker
Publisher : Harvard Business Press
Release Date : 2020-05-26
Category : Business & Economics
Total pages :192
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Is your business playing it safe—or taking the right risks? If you read nothing else on managing risk, read these 10 articles. We've combed through hundreds of Harvard Business Review articles and selected the most important ones to help your company make smart decisions and thrive, even when the future is unclear. This book will inspire you to: Avoid the most common errors in risk management Understand the three distinct categories of risk and tailor your risk-management processes accordingly Embrace uncertainty as a key element of breakthrough innovation Adopt best practices for mitigating political threats Upgrade your organization's forecasting capabilities to gain a competitive edge Detect and neutralize cyberattacks originating inside your company This collection of articles includes "Managing Risks: A New Framework," by Robert S. Kaplan and Anette Mikes; "How to Build Risk into Your Business Model," by Karan Girotra and Serguei Netessine; "The Six Mistakes Executives Make in Risk Management," by Nassim N. Taleb, Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel; "From Superstorms to Factory Fires: Managing Unpredictable Supply-Chain Disruptions," by David Simchi-Levi, William Schmidt, and Yehua Wei; "Is It Real? Can We Win? Is It Worth Doing?: Managing Risk and Reward in an Innovation Portfolio," by George S. Day; “Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company's Judgment," by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Philip E. Tetlock; "Managing 21st-Century Political Risk," by Condoleezza Rice and Amy Zegart; "How to Scandal-Proof Your Company," by Paul Healy and George Serafeim; "Beating the Odds When You Launch a New Venture," by Clark Gilbert and Matthew Eyring; "The Danger from Within," by David M. Upton and Sadie Creese; and "Future-Proof Your Climate Strategy," by Joseph E. Aldy and Gianfranco Gianfrate.